Year-End Tax Projection (US)

If your year ends without a clear projection, you are guessing. And guessing is how high earners get surprised in April. A clean year-end projection is not about perfect math. It is about seeing the size of the gap early enough to do something sensible.

Priority consideration: confirm your tax position before the last decisions are locked in.

Why it matters: bonuses, RSUs, business distributions, and one-time income events often land late in the year. Without a projection, you cannot tell if withholding and estimates are on track.

Key takeaways

• You need a range, not perfect math, before the last payment window closes.
• Late-year income creates the biggest surprises.
• Pair a projection with an estimated tax check to surface gaps early.

What a year-end projection is

It is a high-confidence estimate of where you will land if nothing changes. It is not a filing strategy. It is a visibility check so you can coordinate with your CPA while there is still time to adjust.

The year-end projection framework

1. Lock the income picture. List base income plus any variable income you expect to receive before year-end (bonuses, RSUs, K-1s, or distributions).

2. Confirm withholding and estimates. Compare what has already been paid to what you expect to owe. Estimated tax due dates are set by the IRS and do not follow calendar quarters. (https://www.irs.gov/faqs/estimated-tax)

3. Surface the gap. You do not need a perfect number, but you need to know if the gap is small, medium, or large before the last payment window closes.

4. Sequence the next move. If the gap is meaningful, your CPA can help decide whether to adjust withholding, make a catch-up payment, or take other tax-aware steps.

Decision checklist

• Did bonuses, RSUs, or business income change your tax picture?
• Are you assuming the same deductions and credits as last year?
• Are you on track for the same withholding or estimated payments you planned?
• Do you have major life or entity changes that alter your filing?
• Are any estimated payments due soon based on IRS periods? (https://www.irs.gov/faqs/estimated-tax)

Questions to ask your CPA

• What is my current projection if we lock today as the cut-off?
• What changes would move the projection by a meaningful amount?
• Which documents do you need now to avoid a late scramble?
• Do any estimated tax deadlines apply to me this quarter? (https://www.irs.gov/faqs/estimated-tax)

Related tools

• Estimated Tax Catch-Up
• Tax Optimization

Next step

If you want a quick signal, use the Year-End Tax Projection and pair it with the Estimated Tax Catch-Up check. If either looks off, move to Tax Optimization for the deeper review.

Compliance note

This guide is for planning and coordination only. It does not provide tax or legal advice. Confirm timing and next steps with a qualified professional.

Sources

• IRS: Estimated tax due dates and payment periods
  https://www.irs.gov/faqs/estimated-tax